The Economics of Spam
By: Sam Vaknin
Also published by United Press International (UPI)
Tennessee resident K. C. "Khan" Smith owes the internet
service provider EarthLink $24 million. According to the CNN,
last August he was slapped with a lawsuit accusing him of
violating federal and state Racketeering Influenced and
Corrupt Organizations (RICO) statutes, the federal Computer
Fraud and Abuse Act of 1984, the federal Electronic
Communications Privacy Act of 1986 and numerous other state
laws. On July 19 - having failed to appear in court - the
judge ruled against him. Mr. Smith is a spammer.
Brightmail, a vendor of e-mail filters and anti-spam
applications warned that close to 5 million spam "attacks" or
"bursts" occurred last month and that spam has mushroomed 450
percent since June last year. PC World concurs. Between one
seventh and one half of all e-mail messages are spam -
unsolicited and intrusive commercial ads, mostly concerned
with sex, scams, get rich quick schemes, financial services
and products, and health articles of dubious provenance. The
messages are sent from spoofed or fake e-mail addresses. Some
spammers hack into unsecured servers - mainly in China and
Korea - to relay their missives anonymously.
Spam is an industry. Mass e-mailers maintain lists of e-mail
addresses, often "harvested" by spamware bots - specialized
computer applications - from Web sites. These lists are rented
out or sold to marketers who use bulk mail services. They come
cheap - c. $100 for 10 million addresses. Bulk mailers provide
servers and bandwidth, charging c. $300 per million messages
sent.
As spam recipients become more inured, ISP's less tolerant,
and both more litigious - spammers multiply their efforts in
order to maintain the same response rate. Spam works. It is
not universally unwanted - which makes it tricky to outlaw. It
elicits between 0.1 and 1 percent in positive follow ups,
depending on the message. Many messages now include HTML,
JavaScript, and ActiveX coding and thus resemble viruses.
Jupiter Media Matrix predicted last year that the number of
spam messages annually received by a typical Internet user is
bound to double to 1400 and spending on legitimate e-mail
marketing will reach $9.4 billion by 2006 - compared to $1
billion in 2001. Forrester Research pegs the number at $4.8
billion next year.
More than 2.3 billion spam messages are sent daily. eMarketer
puts the figures a lot lower at 76 billion messages this year.
By 2006, daily spam output will soar to c. 15 billion
missives, says Radicati Group. Jupiter projects a more modest
268 billion annual messages by 2005. An average communication
costs the spammer 0.00032 cents.
PC World quotes the European Union as pegging the bandwidth
costs of spam worldwide at $8-10 billion annually. Other
damages include server crashes, time spent purging unwanted
messages, lower productivity, aggravation, and increased cost
of Internet access.
Inevitably, the spam industry gave rise to an anti-spam
industry. According to a Radicati Group report titled "Anti-
virus, anti-spam, and content filtering market trends 2002-
2006", anti-spam revenues are projected to exceed $88 million
this year - and more than double by 2006. List blockers,
report and complaint generators, advocacy groups, registers of
known spammers, and spam filters all proliferate. The Wall
Street Journal reported in its June 25 issue about a
resurgence of anti-spam startups financed by eager venture
capital.
ISP's are bent on preventing abuse - reported by victims - by
expunging the accounts of spammers. But the latter simply
switch ISP's or sign on with free services like Hotmail and
Yahoo! Barriers to entry are getting lower by the day as the
costs of hardware, software, and communications plummet.
The use of e-mail and broadband connections by the general
population is spreading. Hundreds of thousands of
technologically-savvy operators have joined the market in the
last two years, as the dotcom bubble burst. Still, Steve
Linford of the UK-based Spamhaus.org insists that most spam
emanates from c. 80 large operators.
Now, according to Jupiter Media, ISP's and portals are poised
to begin to charge advertisers in a tier-based system, replete
with premium services. Writing back in 1998, Bill Gates
described a solution also espoused by Esther Dyson, chair of
the Electronic Frontier Foundation:
"As I first described in my book "The Road Ahead" in 1995, I
expect that eventually you'll be paid to read unsolicited e-
mail. You'll tell your e-mail program to discard all
unsolicited messages that don't offer an amount of money that
you'll choose. If you open a paid message and discover it's
from a long-lost friend or somebody else who has a legitimate
reason to contact you, you'll be able to cancel the payment.
Otherwise, you'll be paid for your time."
Subscribers may not be appreciative of the joint ventures
between gatekeepers and inbox clutterers. Moreover, dominant
ISP's, such as AT&T and PSINet have recurrently been accused
of knowingly collaborating with spammers. ISP's rely on the
data traffic that spam generates for their revenues in an
ever-harsher business environment.
The Financial Times and others described how WorldCom refuses
to ban the sale of spamware over its network, claiming that it
does not regulate content. When "pink" (the color of canned
spam) contracts came to light, the implicated ISP's blame the
whole affair on rogue employees.
PC World begs to differ:
"Ronnie Scelson, a self-described spammer who signed such a
contract with PSInet, (says) that backbone providers are more
than happy to do business with bulk e-mailers. 'I've signed up
with the biggest 50 carriers two or three times,' says Scelson
... The Louisiana-based spammer claims to send 84 million
commercial e-mail messages a day over his three 45-megabit-
per-second DS3 circuits. "If you were getting $40,000 a month
for each circuit," Scelson asks, "would you want to shut me
down?"
The line between permission-based or "opt-in" e-mail marketing
and spam is getting thinner by the day. Some list resellers
guarantee the consensual nature of their wares. According to
the Direct Marketing Association's guidelines, quoted by PC
World, not responding to an unsolicited e-mail amounts to
"opting-in" - a marketing strategy known as "opting out". Most
experts, though, strongly urge spam victims not to respond to
spammers, lest their e-mail address is confirmed.
But spam is crossing technological boundaries. Japan has just
legislated against wireless SMS spam targeted at hapless
mobile phone users. Four states in the USA as well as the
European parliament are following suit. Expensive and slow
connections make this kind of spam particularly resented.
Still, according to Britain's Mobile Channel, a mobile
advertising company quoted by "The Economist", SMS advertising
- a novelty - attracts a 10-20 percent response rate -
compared to direct mail's 1-3 percent.
Net identification systems - like Microsoft's Passport and the
one proposed by Liberty Alliance - will make it even easier
for marketers to target prospects.
The reaction to spam can be described only as mass hysteria.
Reporting someone as a spammer - even when he is not - has
become a favorite pastime of vengeful, self-appointed,
vigilante "cyber-cops". Perfectly legitimate, opt-in, email
marketing businesses often find themselves in one or more
black lists - their reputation and business ruined.
In January, CMGI-owned Yesmail was awarded a temporary
restraining order against MAPS - Mail Abuse Prevention System
- forbidding it to place the reputable e-mail marketer on its
Real-time Blackhole list. The case was settled out of court.
Harris Interactive, a large online opinion polling company,
sued not only MAPS, but ISP's who blocked its email messages
when it found itself included in MAPS' Blackhole. Their CEO
accused one of their competitors for the allegations that led
to Harris' inclusion in the list.
Coupled with other pernicious phenomena, such as viruses, the
very foundation of the Internet as a fun, relatively safe,
mode of communication and data acquisition is at stake.
Spammers, it emerges, have their own organizations. NOIC - the
National Organization of Internet Commerce threatened to post
to its Web site the e-mail addresses of millions of AOL
members. AOL has aggressive anti-spamming policies. "AOL is
blocking bulk email because it wants the advertising revenues
for itself (by selling pop-up ads)" the president of NOIC,
Damien Melle, complained to CNET.
Spam is a classic "free rider" problem. For any given
individual, the cost of blocking a spammer far outweighs the
benefits. It is cheaper and easier to hit the "delete" key.
Individuals, therefore, prefer to let others do the job and
enjoy the outcome - the public good of a spam-free Internet.
They cannot be left out of the benefits of such an aftermath -
public goods are, by definition, "non-excludable". Nor is a
public good diminished by a growing number of "non-rival"
users.
Such a situation resembles a market failure and requires
government intervention through legislation and enforcement.
The FTC - the US Federal Trade Commission - has taken legal
action against more than 100 spammers for promoting scams and
fraudulent goods and services.
"Project Mailbox" is an anti-spam collaboration between
American law enforcement agencies and the private sector. Non
government organizations have entered the fray, as have
lobbying groups, such as CAUCE - the Coalition Against
Unsolicited Commercial E-mail.
But Congress is curiously reluctant to enact stringent laws
against spam. Reasons cited are free speech, limits on state
powers to regulate commerce, avoiding unfair restrictions on
trade, and the interests of small business. The courts
equivocate as well. In some cases - e.g., Missouri vs.
American Blast Fax - US courts found "that the provision
prohibiting the sending of unsolicited advertisements is
unconstitutional".
According to Spamlaws.com, the 107th Congress discussed these
laws but never enacted them:
Unsolicited Commercial Electronic Mail Act of 2001 (H.R. 95),
Wireless Telephone Spam Protection Act (H.R. 113), Anti-
Spamming Act of 2001 (H.R. 718), Anti-Spamming Act of 2001
(H.R. 1017), Who Is E-Mailing Our Kids Act (H.R. 1846),
Protect Children From E-Mail Smut Act of 2001 (H.R. 2472),
Netizens Protection Act of 2001 (H.R. 3146), "CAN SPAM" Act of
2001 (S. 630).
Anti-spam laws fared no better in the 106th Congress. Some of
the states have picked up the slack. Arkansas, California,
Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa,
Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada,
North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South
Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia,
and Wisconsin.
The situation is no better across the pond. The European
parliament decided last year to allow each member country to
enact its own spam laws, thus avoiding a continent-wide
directive and directly confronting the communications
ministers of the union. Paradoxically, it also decided, three
months ago, to restrict SMS spam. Confusion clearly reigns.
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